DETERMINAN MAKROEKONOMI DAN PERBANKAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN ASET PERBANKAN SYARIAH DI INDONESIA DENGAN BI RATE SEBAGAI VARIABEL KONTROL

Abstract

Islamic banking asset growth is a key indicator of the sector's capacity for financial intermediation and economic contribution. This study analyzes the effects of inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and Third-Party Fund (TPF) growth on Islamic banking asset growth in Indonesia, with BI Rate as a control variable, using quarterly data for Q1 2014–Q4 2024 (44 observations). Employing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression via EViews, supported by Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity tests and classical assumption diagnostics, the study finds that inflation (p=0.340) and GDP growth (p=0.914) have no significant effect on asset growth, while TPF growth has a positive and highly significant effect (β=0.793; p=0.000). BI Rate, as a control variable, is not significant (p=0.464). Collectively, the variables explain 80.83% of asset growth variation (R²=0.808). These findings indicate that Islamic banking asset growth in Indonesia is driven primarily by internal banking factors—specifically TPF mobilization—rather than macroeconomic conditions. Strengthening TPF through product innovation, digital services, and improved Islamic financial literacy is recommended as a strategic priority.